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Hargreave Hale Documentation
Investment Bulletin
DESTINATION TAXATION TRUMP STYLE - MARCH 2017

The New Year rally has petered out a little as US stock and bond markets acknowledge that US interest rates are likely to rise, possibly significantly during 2017. The obvious catalyst for interest rate increases remains the underlying recovery in the US economy but on top of that there is the additional impact on GDP growth of Trump’s infrastructure spending programme.

Past bulletins
TRUMPONOMICS - JANUARY 2017

The New Year brings a lot of variables for investors. It is partly the aftermath of Brexit which gets more complex as investors understand it more. It is partly the uncertainty surrounding the dos and don’ts of Trump and again the possible alternative policy options multiply the more often you look at them. There is no point in pretending that things will clear up in the near future.

PLACE YOUR BETS - November 2016

In the last bulletin, entitled Spend! Spend! Spend, we discussed, well in advance of a Trump victory, the capacity of the US to spend its way out of trouble. In an era of competitive devaluations and nominal rates, there have anyway been few constraints on the ability of Governments in the developed world to borrow.

SPEND! SPEND! SPEND! - September 2016

So far, Brexit does not seem to have had much impact on the UK economy. The lumpen proletariat is spending away resolutely, ignoring the blood curdling warnings from their elders and betters in the establishment about the dire consequences of having voted for Brexit.

ANYBODY REMEMBER SOMETHING CALLED BREXIT? - July 2016

There was something odd about the pre Brexit warnings issued to the public by the ex-Chancellor and by the Governor of the Bank of England. If the people chose not to do what they were told by them and by some members of the London political and media elite they would be facing long term austerity and nancial instability.

FED REFOCUS - May 2016

During the early part of this month investors were pricing in just a 4% probability of a June US interest hike. However, in a short period of time this probability was raised to over 40%. The resultant volatility in stock markets and in particular the prices...

Papering over the cracks - April 2016

The informal currency accord established at the recent G20 meeting in Shanghai has been successful so far, helped by Ms Yellen’s remarks to the Economic Club in New York, hinting heavily about the deferral of US interest rate rises. And Draghi’s off the cuff remarks about there being a clear limit to the extent of negative interest rates.

SECRET ACCORD - MARCH 2016

Back in 1985, a rising Dollar was driving up the US trade deficit. The prior five years, 1980 to1985 had seen the Dollar appreciate by about 50% against the Japanese Yen, German Deutschmark, French Franc and British Pound, the currencies of the next four biggest economies of the time.

FED RETHINK - January 2016

In our last bulletin, we focused on so called Colliding Mandates. Western Central Banks are mandated to stabilise their economies by raising or lowering interest rates to control GDP activity, taking particular account of the level of unemployment.

COLLIDING MANDATES - December 2015

A whole new generation of traders and investors have grown up in total ignorance of periods of interest rate volatility. Stating the obvious, very broadly, interest rates in the developed world have been hovering either side of 1% for no less than seven years.

SEE BEYOND THE FLOATING CLOUDS - September 2015

Only two months ago, there were multiple warnings from both the US Fed and the Bank of England that economic activity was sufficiently encouraging to warrant an increase in interest rates.

SKITTISH AUGUST MARKETS - August 2015

A couple of weeks ago, it would have been headline news that a collection of stony hearted German politicians had voted through the grand sum of €86bn to bail out the poor citizens living in “the cradle of democracy”, Greece. Not so now.

INTEREST RATES BACK TO NORMAL - JULY 2015

Ms Yellen, Chairperson of the Fed has told us in no uncertain terms that interest rates are going up. And she has told us that this will happen sometime around the fourth quarter of this year….

BEHAVIOURAL CHANGE – JUNE 2015

The distortions caused to different asset classes by Quantitative Easing (QE) are far reaching and are causing a lot of people to do a great deal of head scratching. Take sovereign debt, for example, which used to be a safe place to park money…

ALL CHANGE - APRIL 2015

The facts we know, however much they may be distorted by political rhetoric. They are simple. Any future recovery in the UK rests on a bed of debt, with personal indebtedness now around £1.4tn – an all-time high!...

DEAD SEA SCROLLS - March 2015

Ever since the discovery of the Scrolls, there have been disputes over the exact meaning of certain prophetic passages in the Hebrew scriptures. Not just over the meaning of the verses but also over their precise wording...

A GLOBAL VIEW - FEBRUARY 2015

The next few weeks should see some resolution to the refinancing of Greek Sovereign debt. Or it might not. One suggestion is to convert some of the sovereign debt into irredeemable non-interest bearing loans, not even an equity kicker in sight as per the Lloyds Bank Cocos...

Investment Bulletin January 2015

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